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Список литературы по оценке бизнеса > Анализ структуры капитала и оценка стоимости капитала для компании филип моррис интернэшнл
Боввен Т.Г. Анализ структуры капитала и оценка стоимости капитала для компании филип моррис интернэшнл // Хроноэкономика. 2019. № 4 (17). С. 29-32.
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Фрагмент работы на тему "Анализ структуры капитала и оценка стоимости капитала для компании филип моррис интернэшнл"«Хроноэкономика» № 4(17). Июль2019 www.hronoeconomics.ru 29 2. СТАТЬИ МОЛОДЫХ УЧЕНЫХ УДК: 38.03.01 THE ANALYSIS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND EVALUATION OF COST OF CAPITAL FOR PHILLIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL Bovven Tatiana, master Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia Email: tanyabovven@yandex.ru Abstract. Capital of the company is the main part of all types of business activities, which are determined by the size and nature of the business. Capital can be raised from a variety of sources. The aim of this work is to analyze the capital structure of Philip Morris international and assess the value of its capital, followed by an analysis of the overall trend of its changes. Key words: use of debt capital, capital of company, company’s debt capital, debt financing, financial liabilities, capital structure. АНАЛИЗ СТРУКТУРЫ КАПИТАЛА И ОЦЕНКА СТОИМОСТИ КАПИТАЛА ДЛЯ КОМПАНИИ ФИЛИП МОРРИС ИНТЕРНЭШНЛ Боввен Т.Г., магистр Финансовый Университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва, Россия Email: tanyabovven@yandex.ru Аннотация. Капитал компании является основной частью всех видов предпринимательской деятельности, которые определяются размером и характером бизнеса. Капитал может быть привлечен с помощью различных источников. Целью данной работы является анализ структуры капитала компании Филип Моррис Интернэшнл и оценка стоимости ее капитала с последующим анализом общей тенденции его изменения. Ключевые слова: использование заёмного капитала, капитал компании, заёмный капитал компании, заёмное финансирование, финансовые обязательства, структура капитала. Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) is one of the world’s largest tobacco companies. PMI delivered a very strong performance in 2015, despite an increasingly complex business environment, as well as the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which acted as a significant drag on reported results. 2016 was a pivotal year for PMI, reflecting exciting progress in transformation from a cigarette company to one that is focused on Reduced-Risk Products, which makes it more valuable on the market for consumers and helps to increase its earnings per share. Philip Morris International Inc has a capital structure with a 56% of debt finance and has a big debt of $28.48 Bil in 2015 and in 2016 it increases to $29.067 Bil (Fig.1). Current portion of long-term debt for the quarter that ended in Dec. 2015 was $2,405 Mil and in 2016 it slightly increases to $2,573 Mil. Philip Morris International Inc's total Stockholders’ (Deficit) Equity for the quarter that ended in Dec. 2015 was $ -11.476 Mil. And in 2016 it slightly improved to $- 10.900 Mil. Philip Morris International Inc's debt to equity for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2015 was - 2.15. Philip Morris International Inc's Debt to Equity Ratio for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2016 is calculated as. Debt to Equity = Total Debt / Total Equity = (Current Portion of Long-Term Debt+ Long-Term Debt) / Total Equity Debt to Equity 2016 = (2.573 + 25.851) / - 10.900 = - 2.6. «Хроноэкономика» № 4(17). Июль2019 www.hronoeconomics.ru 30 Figure 1 - Tendency of changes in capital structure of PMI from 2008-2016 Source: URL: https://www.stock-analysis-on.net In general, company leadership and investors are comfortable with a certain level of debt and leverage due to the potentially higher return on equity it generates. Most typically, a negative leverage ratio refers to the negative return on equity that results from the higher interest on debt than the investment return, but a negative leverage ratio may also refer to the debt-to-equity ratio resulting from a company with a negative net worth. Negative debt-to-equity ratio occurs in PMI when a company purchases an investment using borrowed funds, and the borrowed money has a greater cost, or higher interest rate, than the return made on the investment. Negative leverage also results from a negative stockholders' equity or net worth. This occurs because PM has had problems raising money to cover historical net losses. Those net losses accrue and eventually surpass the equity from issued stock. However, company continued to access the capital markets at very favorable rates in 2016, raising $3.6 billion over the course of the year and reducing the weighted-average all-in financing cost of total debt by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%. The weighted-average time to maturity of total long-term debt stood at 10.6 years at the end of 2016, essentially stable compared to the prior year. Lets calculate WACC for 2016 Weights: First of all, it is necessary to calculate Market value of Equity or Market capitalization. Market capitalization refers the total dollar market value of a company's outstanding shares. It is calculated by multiplying a company's shares outstanding by the current market price of one share. The investment community uses this figure to determine a company's size, as opposed to using sales or total asset figures. Market Value of Equity 2016 = Company's shares outstanding x. The current market price of one share Market Value of Equity 2016 = 1.553 Bx $120.04 = $186422.120 Mil Secondly, the book value of debt is determined. It is comprised of the following line items on an entity’s balance sheet: ? Notes payable. Found in the current liabilities section of the balance sheet. ? Current portion of long-term debt. Found in the current liabilities section of the balance sheet. ? Long-term debt. Found in the long-term liabilities section of the balance sheet. The book value of debt does not include accounts payable or accrued liabilities, since these obligations are not considered to be interest-bearing liabilities. Book Value of Debt 2016 = Notes Payable + Current portion of long-term debt +Long-term debt Book Value of Debt 2016 = 643 + 2,573 + 25,851 = 29067 Mil «Хроноэкономика» № 4(17). Июль2019 www.hronoeconomics.ru 31 a) weight of equity = E / (E + D) = 186422.120 / (186422.120 + 29067) = 0.8651 b) weight of debt = D / (E + D) = 29067/ (186422.120 + 29067) = 0.1349 2. Cost of Equity: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be used to calculate the required rate of return. The formula is: Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + Beta of Asset * Market Premium a) For calculation should be taken 3-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 1.47 %. b) Beta is the sensitivity of the expected excess asset returns to the expected excess market returns. Philip Morris International Inc's beta is 0.81. c) (Expected Return of the Market - Risk-Free Rate of Return) is also called market premium. Market premium requires to be 6%. Cost of Equity = 1.47% + 0.81 * 6% = 6.33% 3. Cost of Debt: As of Dec. 2016, Philip Morris International Inc's interest expense (positive number) was $1069 Mil. Its total Book Value of Debt (D) is $28773.5 Mil. Cost of Debt 2016 = Interest Expense / Book Value of Debt. Cost of Debt 2016 = 891 / 29067= 3.065%. 4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate: Average Tax Rate in 2016 for PMI is 27.89%. Philip Morris International Inc's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for Today is calculated as: WACC 2016 = E / (E + D) * Cost of Equity + D / (E + D) * Cost of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) WACC 2016 = 0.8651 * 6.33% + 0.1349 * 3.065% * (1 - 27.89%) = 5.64% As of Dec. 2015, Philip Morris International Inc's weighted average cost of capital was 7.74%. Weighted average cost of capital shows a company how expensive it is to finance new projects or other expenditures by raising money from outside sources. PMI raise more debt during 2016 and WACC decrease against 2015: debt is less expensive than equity and the proportion of debt to equity is increasing. At the same time, equity holders may require a higher return: by increasing debt, the company may become a riskier investment. To analyze how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business return on invested capital is used. It is also called Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Philip Morris International Inc's annualized return on invested capital (ROIC) for the quarter that ended in Dec.2015 was 50.75% and in Dec. 2016 it increases to 56% due to the increase of operating profit and valuable investment projects. Total sum of invested capital slightly increases from 13587 in 2015 to 13928 in 2016. Return on Invested Capital 2016 = NOPAT / Invested Capital = EBIT*(1-Tax Rate) / Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital 2016 = 10 815 * (1 - 27.89%) / 13928 = 56% Invested Capital 2016 = Book Value of Debt + Book Value of Equity - Cash = Long-Term Debt+ Short-Term Debt + Minority Interest + Total Equity – Cash Invested Capital 2016 = 25851 + 3216 + 1788+ (-12688) - 4239 = 13928 Return on Invested Capital 2015 = NOPAT / Invested Capital = EBIT*(1-Tax Rate) / Invested Capital = 10 623* (1 – 27.89%) / 13587 = 50.75% Invested Capital 2015 = Book Value of Debt + Book Value of Equity - Cash = Long-Term Debt + Short-Term Debt + Minority Interest + Total Equity – Cash = 25250 + 3230 + 1768 + (-13244) - 3417 =13587 To sum up, company has a big debt about 29 Bil and a stockholder’s deficit. Negative stockholders' equity is a strong indicator of impending bankruptcy, and so is considered a major warning flag for a loan officer or credit analyst. However, PMI is a very strong company with a high market share and because of that this deficit mean that a business is in the ramp-up stage and has used a large amount of funds to create products and infrastructure that will later yield profits. Now company is introducing a new innovative ReducedRisk Products and investing in new technology not harming to smokers. Due to that PMI ROIC is rather «Хроноэкономика» № 4(17). Июль2019 www.hronoeconomics.ru 32 high and stable. Moreover, PMI debt to equity ratio is negative: - 2.29 in Dec.2016 that occurs in PM when a company purchases an investment using borrowed funds, and the borrowed money has a greater cost, or higher interest rate, than the return made on the investment. References [1] Amy Gallo. «A refresher on cost of capital». Article by Harvard business review. April 30, 2015. [2] CEIOPS article - QIS4 background document Guidance on the definition of the reference entity for the calculation of the Cost of Capital. 2012, p. 21 [3] IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) eISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-5925.Volume 5, Issue 3. (Sep.-Oct. 2014), 2014, p. 17-25 www.iosrjournals.org [4] Kenneth Eades, Michael J. Schill. «The Cost of Capital: Principles and Practice». Technical note published by HBR in 2014. Page 39. [5] Knight Joe. «HBR Tools. Return on investment (ROI) », 2015, p.25. [6] Kurschner M., ''An empirical and theoretical analysis of CAPM model'', 2012, p.17 [7] Morningstar overview of PMI performance, Rupert Hargreaves, 2016, p.2 [8] OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Volume 2014/1 «Non-Bank Debt Financing for Smes: The Role of Securitisation, Private Placements and Bonds», 2015, p.6 [9] Peter Lynch (2014). What is the way of calculating WACC for a project in Russia? 2015, p.1 [10] «Philip Morris International, Inc. – Value Analysis» - Article by Capital Cube, 2017, p.2 [11] Review of Accounting Studies, 8, 2013 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Manufactured in The Netherlands «Financial Statement Analysis of Leverage and How It, 2015, p.7 [12] Thomas Reuters Business Article on Debt and Equity Finance, 2016, p.2 ===================================== V V ==================================== Другие книги из этого разделаМетоды оценки в рамках доходного подхода: особенности и ограниченияТеоретический подход к исследованию факторов стоимости бизнесаАнализ теорий влияния стоимости капитала на стоимость бизнесаМетоды оценки в рамках доходного подхода: особенности и ограниченияТеоретический подход к исследованию факторов стоимости бизнесаАнализ теорий влияния стоимости капитала на стоимость бизнеса